Alberta, and all of Canada, is amid a period of heightened economic uncertainty. A slowing global economy, an oversupplied world oil market, and continued threats of tariffs and trade disruptions all point to slower growth, lower oil prices and, in turn, lower resource revenues for Alberta. Geopolitical tensions and a looming CUSMA review only add to this uncertainty.
Alberta has shown resilience thus far, with population growth, a residential construction boom, and record oil production all helping propel the economy forward. However, while there are promising capital investment opportunities on the horizon in data centres, petrochemicals, carbon capture, and artificial intelligence, the impact of these earlier growth drivers may be fading. And on top of that, many private sector investment and hiring plans are on hold until greater policy and economic certainty emerge.
It is against this backdrop that the Alberta government will be releasing its 2026 budget.
The province’s fiscal room and toolkit are both limited. To manage this, Alberta needs to make prudent fiscal decisions now, while taking a long-term approach to reduce these fiscal constraints by creating the conditions for economic growth and competitiveness for the future. To do this, the Business Council of Alberta (BCA) is looking for Alberta to include the following thematic elements in Budget 2026:
1. Address the Fiscal Situation
Alberta is struggling to achieve consistent fiscal sustainability. Non-renewable resource revenues are expected to be billions of dollars lower compared to last year, threatening to balloon the provincial deficit.
The Government of Alberta has done a commendable job in bringing per capita provincial expenses in line with those of other large provinces. Long-term plans to grow the Heritage Savings Trust Fund are important in creating more sustainability in the future. But now it is time to address the short-term revenue side of the equation.
The Business Council of Alberta is looking for Budget 2026 to begin laying the groundwork for a more stable and sustainable fiscal model — one that has a more predictable revenue stream. While strong fiscal discipline today is necessary, this discipline must be paired with a more efficient, stable revenue model that will create predictable revenue streams which can ensure continued expenditures in areas important to Albertans and Alberta businesses and reduce the pressure on cuts to services or growing government debt.
2. Improve Provincial Regulatory Processes
Both the province and the country as a whole have a renewed focus on building a strong, resilient, competitive economy. Doing so will require attracting private sector investment to build big projects quickly. This depends on a competitive regulatory system that is clear, efficient, and predictable.
BCA is looking for continued progress in reducing unnecessary red tape; accelerating project approvals and permitting; clearing the path for maximizing major capital investment opportunities such as in oil sands, carbon capture, data centre and petrochemical facilities; building internal capacity to quickly assess and approve big projects; and protecting businesses’ global competitiveness through regulatory design negotiations as outlined in the Canada-Alberta MOU.
3. Diversify Alberta’s Trade
In an increasingly uncertain global trade environment, Alberta’s trade cannot rely as heavily on the United States as we do today. The Alberta-US relationship will always be our most vital. But diversifying trade will strengthen our economic resiliency and help our businesses grow, even when global trade conditions shift.
BCA is looking for the Alberta government to continue focusing on expanding trade relationships; expanding trade mission activity; reducing interprovincial trade barriers; and helping businesses reach customers beyond traditional markets.