First of all, I am honoured to have been part of the advisory panel for this important work. It was a privilege to contribute to a process focused on providing Albertans with reliable, transparent information about what separation could mean for our province. The University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy and everyone involved deserve tremendous credit for undertaking this complex analysis. Thank you for your rigour and professionalism in completing this work.
What the report makes clear is that while there could be some economic benefits to separation under the smoothest and most favourable circumstances, those benefits are marginal and would require nearly everything to go right for Alberta. The difficult scenario shows how significant the downside could be.
Most importantly, this is not just about GDP or government balance sheets. It is about Albertans’ everyday lives. The scenarios model meaningful impacts on jobs, wages and taxes.
In the smooth scenario, the report estimates that in a sovereign Alberta, employment would be just 0.7% lower in the short term, and around 0.7% higher over the long term. Albertans could also earn about $1,800 more per year and pay about $1,100 less in taxes by about 20 years into a sovereign Alberta. The difficult scenario looks very different. In the short term, there would be considerable job losses. Employment could fall by 10% at the peak of the short-term recession. While unemployment could come down over the longer term, the report estimates that employment would still be 4.7% lower than otherwise, in part because some people would leave the labour force. The difficult scenario also estimates that by 20 years into a sovereign Alberta, Albertans could earn about $12,000 less per year and pay about $6,600 more in taxes compared with remaining in Canada.
These are scenarios, not predictions, and the reality could fall somewhere between the two. But even then, Albertans need to consider what they would be taking on. So much of the outcome would depend on negotiations and decisions outside Alberta’s control, making separation an extraordinarily complex and uncertain undertaking.
For the Business Council of Alberta, the report reinforces our position that separation would bring profound uncertainty and risks, and that Alberta’s best path is to pursue a strong future within Canada.
I hope Albertans take the time to read this report and think through what these scenarios could mean for their own families, their jobs, their wages and their taxes. The report provides an important foundation for that conversation, as well as an informed conversation about Alberta’s future.
Adam Legge
President, Business Council of Alberta