Alberta expected to lead Canada in growth despite global volatility; Canada-Alberta MOU signals opportunity ahead
Calgary, Alberta — December 10, 2025 — The Business Council of Alberta (BCA) has released its Winter 2025 Economic Snapshot, highlighting a province that has remained resilient through one of the most turbulent years in global trade policy. Alberta is expected to lead all provinces with roughly 2% economic growth in both 2025 and 2026.
“Alberta continues to hold its ground in a difficult global environment,” said Mike Holden, Vice President of Policy and Chief Economist at the Business Council of Alberta. “We’re seeing stability today thanks to several supporting factors, but with Alberta closely tied to U.S. economic conditions, businesses are approaching the months ahead with more caution around sentiment, hiring, and investment.”
The BCA’s twice-yearly economic snapshots, produced by its team of economists, bring together the most relevant data, trends, and risks shaping Alberta’s economy including the national and global context, population growth and immigration, housing, consumer spending and hiring.
The latest snapshot shows:
- Despite slowing population growth, Alberta continues to grow faster than most provinces, supporting retail demand and consumer spending.
- Production near historic highs and a narrower WCS–WTI differential are helping cushion weaker global prices, while export gains beyond the U.S. market are offsetting modest weakness south of the border.
- Manufacturing is expected to finish the year roughly flat, wholesale trade continues to contract, and housing construction, previously a growth driver, is cooling as the market rebalances.
- Agriculture faces headwinds from global oversupply and continued canola tariffs from China.
- Alberta’s labour market has held up remarkably well, and recent job gains have brought unemployment back in line with the national average.
While Alberta benefits from some of the lowest effective tariff rates in Canada, the province remains sensitive to U.S. economic conditions. This has contributed to a more cautious approach to capital planning, with many firms signalling no major hiring plans over the next few months. Recent business sentiment surveys, especially in Calgary and in export-oriented sectors like oil and gas, transportation, and manufacturing, reflect this uncertainty.
Despite near-term challenges, Alberta’s longer-term prospects are positive. The Canada–Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) represents a renewed federal focus on major projects, energy infrastructure, and growth potential in the province.
Holden added, “The future is looking brighter with the signing of the Canada-Alberta MOU, which could open the door to real opportunities for the province and if effectively implemented, helps set the stage for the province to move from resilience to prosperity and growth.”
BCA’s economic snapshots are the only amalgamated summaries available that offer a full, integrated picture of Alberta’s economic landscape including past performance, present pressures, and future potential.
-30-
About the Business Council of Alberta
The Business Council of Alberta is a non-partisan, non-profit organization dedicated to building a better Alberta within a more dynamic Canada. Composed of the chief executives and leading entrepreneurs of the province’s largest enterprises, Council members are proud to represent the majority of Alberta’s private sector investment, job creation, exports, and research and development. The Council is committed to working with leaders and stakeholders across Alberta and Canada in proposing bold and innovative public policy solutions and initiatives that will make life better for Albertans. https://businesscouncilab.com/