Understanding Alberta’s Future in Canada

A referendum has been set for October 19, 2026, by the Government of Alberta.

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BALLOT QUESTION #10 (O.C. 160/2026):

Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?

View the Order in Council document

Our Position

The Business Council of Alberta believes the best future for Alberta is one where we remain in Canada.

Albertans have legitimate frustrations with the way our federation has worked including concerns about equalization, major project approvals, federal policy and regulation, investment and Alberta’s representation in national government. These frustrations are real, and they deserve to be taken seriously.

Separation is not the solution. It would replace the foundation of certainty Alberta has today with years, if not decades, of negotiation, questions and an outcome no one can guarantee—creating uncertainty around trade agreements, market access, debt, mortgage rates and, most importantly, jobs.

Alberta does not need to start over. It needs to build on what generations of Albertans have already created, drawing on the stable institutions, established legal and financial systems, and market access that Canada provides.

The federal government has more work to do to address the unfair treatment of Alberta, but the path forward should be one of greater opportunity, stronger relationships and continued advocacy for Alberta’s interests, while maintaining the certainty that comes with being part of Canada.

Read our full statement

Our Commitment to Alberta

Since 2019, the Business Council of Alberta has championed the policies and ideas that help drive prosperity for Alberta’s people, businesses and communities.

The upcoming referendum has the potential to shape the conditions that underpin Alberta’s long-term prosperity. That’s why we are providing information and resources to help Albertans understand the referendum and its impacts in a way that is clear and accessible.

Ultimately, this decision belongs to Albertans. We encourage every eligible voter to understand the implications, consider the evidence and make their voice heard on October 19.

Explore our materials
Read our news release

Hear From our President

C-Suite Unplugged Special

In this special episode of C-Suite Unplugged, BCA President Adam Legge takes the guest seat as Lauren Stewart, BCA’s Vice President of Communications and External Relations, hosts a conversation on Alberta’s future in Canada ahead of the October 19 referendum.

Tune in as they get to the heart of why BCA believes Alberta’s strongest path forward is within Canada.

The Implications

The University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy examined how separation could affect Albertans over the short term (within 5 years) and long term ( after 20 years) in a report outlining the economic and fiscal implications of Alberta separation. 

It modelled a smooth transition scenario and a difficult one. The smooth scenario is one in which the rest of Canada realizes that it is best to accommodate Alberta’s separation, so everything goes smoothly as possible. The difficult scenario incorporates many factors that hurt the economy. These include a more fractious relationship with Canada, higher trade costs, greater investor and worker uncertainty, less migration between Alberta and the rest of Canada, higher interest rates, indeterminate trade relations with other nations, a greater share of federal debt and a lack of energy exports for Alberta’s key industry.

Key findings to consider from the report are outlined below.

Annual Earnings

Short term (under 5 years)
↓ $1,241

Long term (after 20 years)
↑ $1,851

Employment

Short term (under 5 years)
↓ 0.7%

Long term (after 20 years)
↑ 0.7%

Individual Taxes

Short term (under 5 years)
↑ $809 per person

Long term (after 20 years)
↓ $1,148 per person

Annual Earnings

Short term (under 5 years)
↓ $5,496

Long term (after 20 years)
↓ $11,957

Employment

Short term (under 5 years)
↓ 10%
At the recession’s peak

Long term (after 20 years)
↓ 4.7%

Individual Taxes

Short term (under 5 years)
↑ $5,483 per person

Long term (after 20 years)
↑ $6,598 per person

Op-eds, Commentaries and Reports

Looking for a deeper dive? Explore commentary, analysis and perspectives on Alberta’s future and the implications of separation.

Our Communications Materials 

We’ve developed a collection of referendum graphics, videos and other communications materials reflecting our perspective on Alberta’s future.

The materials are available below.

View materials
Need help? Get in touch

Make Your Voice Heard

The decision before Albertans has the potential to shape our economy, investment climate and future opportunities for generations.

If you’re an eligible voter, we encourage you to understand the implications and participate by voting on October 19.

Visit Elections Alberta

Planning to Vote?

Here are a few details to help you plan ahead. For more information, visit Elections Alberta.

  • Referendum day is October 19, with voting locations open from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m.
  • Advance voting is available from October 13–17.
  • To vote, you must be a Canadian citizen, an Alberta resident and at least 18 years old.
  • Eligible Albertans can apply to vote by mail through Elections Alberta.

Media Inquiries

For more information on this project or to arrange an interview with a spokesperson, please contact: media@businesscouncilab.com