The provinces have played an important and growing role in immigration in Canada. Yet recent federal cuts to immigration outlined in the 2025-27 Immigration Levels Plan largely come at the expense of the provinces’ role in immigration through what is known as the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP).
BCA’s first major policy report on immigration, Delivering the Promise, focused on the role of the federal government in generating greater prosperity through immigration, and highlighted the urgent need to better select and attract those who can contribute the most to the economy. Most recommendations from that report remain relevant today. But it left out an important piece of the puzzle: the role of the provinces.
Provincial governments play a critical role in immigration, and we think the recent, and sizeable reduction of the PNP is not only a mistake but a missed opportunity.
That is the purpose of this report: detailing what’s at stake in reducing the PNP and the likely consequences of that decision. It also makes the case for reversing that decision and outlines the steps the federal government can take to improve the program.
Prosperity-Driven Immigration and BCA’s Previous Work
Prior to this report, BCA conducted extensive background research and consultation, leading up to its
first major policy report on immigration, Delivering the Promise. That report detailed the need for
Canada to set a clear vision and plan to increase economic growth through immigration—what we call
prosperity-driven immigration
The provinces have played an important and growing role in immigration in Canada. Yet recent federal cuts to immigration outlined in the 2025-27 Immigration Levels Plan largely come at the expense of the provinces’ role in immigration through what is known as the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP).
What is the Provincial Nominee Program?
The Provincial Nominee Program (PNP), established in 1998, allows Canadian provinces and territories to select a certain number of immigrants each year based on their unique economic and labour market needs.
Individual provinces/territories sign agreements with the federal government through Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) that set out the roles and responsibilities between the two parties.
The number of nominations available to each province is determined annually by the minister responsible for IRCC, and had been steadily increasing since inception until the release of the 2025-27 Immigration Levels Plan. While total immigration was reduced by around 100,000 new permanent residents, the PNP was reduced by 65,000. Cuts to the PNP dwarf cuts to the other two main classes of immigration combined (i.e., family-related immigration and refugees).
What’s at stake
These cuts will result in greater concentration of immigrants in Canada’s largest cities and do little to alleviate absorptive capacity where it is strained most. Furthermore, selection of economic immigrants will increasingly overlook regional perspective and need.
The PNP has gone a long way to leveling the playing field between big provinces and less populous ones in attracting newcomers. Over the last couple of decades, the percentage of economic immigrants intending to settle in Ontario has decreased from about 60% to 37%. On the other hand, provinces that historically have struggled to draw economic immigrants have been able to attract more, and in some cases a lot more, thanks to the PNP. As the PNP is reduced, this regional diversity will wane.
Another casualty of the PNP cuts is the regional knowledge and perspective the program brings to Canada’s immigration strategy. A benefit of the PNP is that it leverages the fact that provinces generally have a better sense of their own current and emerging labour needs.
As a part of the strategy to reduce the share of temporary residents to no more than 5% of the total population by the end of 2026, the 2025-27 Immigration Levels Plan anticipates that more than 40% of the available spots for permanent residency will go to students or workers already in Canada. Given these individuals have already integrated into a community, provinces should have the best sense for which temporary residents are the strongest candidates for permanent residency to support the region’s long-term growth. But with the reduction of the PNP, this role will largely fall to the federal government instead.
If newcomers to a province are increasingly selected by the federal, not the provincial, government, provinces may feel that the benefits of immigration are limited by selection that is unresponsive to their local labour market needs, while the cost of planning for immigration is high. This could frustrate the relationship between orders of government.
The Opportunity
That said, there are also many ways to enhance the PNP and its success. Specifically, we see the
following as important ways that the federal government can help to deliver greater prosperity through
the PNP:
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- The program could benefit from clearer economic objectives.
- Provincial allocations should be better utilized to enhance the success of the overall PNP.
- Federal policies and strategies should seek to minimize overlap with the PNP.
- The federal government should seek to build greater coordination with provinces.
- Making the program more accessible and easier to navigate could increase the pool of talent.
With these enhancements, the program could be made even stronger, bolstering the effectiveness and importance of the PNP across Canada. Below, we explore some of the issues holding back the program and how they can be tackled to deliver greater prosperity for Canada.
For more on Prosperity Driven Immigration, see BCA’s ongoing Taskforce work here.Â